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After the Conventions: Who Will Win the 2012 Presidential Election, Obama or Romney?

Now that the Democratic and Republican delegates have officially chosen their nominees, Patch wants to know: Who are you betting on?

It's official: With President Barack Obama's acceptance speech in Charlotte Thursday night, both the Republicans and Democrats have formally chosen their nominees for the 2012 presidential election. Let the real race begin.

A lot can change between now and Nov. 6: Gaffes, scandals or even major international news events could shift the dynamics of the campaign.

The latest Gallup Polls show registered voters preferring Obama to Mitt Romney by just one percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent. A USA Today/Gallup poll taken just before the party conventions found American voters think Obama is more likeable, but trust Romney more to handle the economy.

Pundits have been busy for months handicapping the major-party candidates on various factors: incumbent advantage, fundraising clout, even religion.

Patch wants to know: Regardless of who you support for President, who do you think will actually claim victory in November?

Vote in our poll below, and let us know your thoughts in our comments section.

commentmaker4 September 11, 2012 at 12:50 PM
I could do this in detail, but you can learn everything you need to know by understanding two numbers: $4.6 trillion and 14 million. Of these, $4.6 trillion is the size of the mystery meat in the budget. Ryan proposes tax cuts that would cost $4.6 trillion over the next decade relative to current policy — that is, relative even to making the Bush tax cuts permanent — but claims that his plan is revenue neutral, because he would make up the revenue loss by closing loopholes. For example, he would … well, actually, he refuses to name a single example of a loophole he wants to close. So the budget is a fraud. No, it’s not “imperfect”, it’s not a bit shaky on the numbers; it’s completely based on almost $5 trillion dollars of alleged revenue that are pure fabrication. On the other side, 14 million is the minimum number of people who would lose health insurance due to Medicaid cuts — the Urban Institute, working off the very similar plan Ryan unveiled last year, puts it at between 14 and 27 million people losing Medicaid. That’s a lot of people — and a lot of suffering. And again, bear in mind that none of this would be done to reduce the deficit — it would be done to make room for those $4.6 trillion in tax cuts, and in particular a tax cut of $240,000 a year to the average member of the one percent.. But Obama is very rude for pointing any of this out.
commentmaker4 September 11, 2012 at 12:58 PM
To answer both your questions: the Republicans were recalcitrant when Obama tried to let the Bush cuts die. I didn't praise Clinton so I don't think you are actually reading my comments. Since no one besides me has been reading yours i think our dialogue is pointless. You have name called twice while i have been unfailingly polite. So I'm heading out on my bike with my friends to enjoy this primo weather.
JaySmith September 12, 2012 at 02:10 AM
You have no clue how to answer 2 simple questions. Over and out, or 'checkmate'. I don't think you can grasp the concept of simple questions. Your START of an answer is totally ludicrous.......you say the Republicans were 'recalcitrant'. I TOLD YOU that there were 60 NON-REPUBLICANS in the Senate starting 7/1/09 for six months....Reid/Pelosi/Obama did not need ONE Repub vote. Do you not pay attention.......the 2 questions are specific and I explained that they had total control, filibuster-proof Senate......to pass any tax increase they wanted. They did not need even ONE Repub vote. Why are you so freaking dense? Over and out, nutcase. There, I name-called. And about your stupid Ryan budget projections.......wake up.....Obama and Reid don't even HAVE a budget to criticize. So you focus on Ryan's 10year projections. You don't answer questions, you have YOUR president you love but he didn't do what you want, he doesn't make a budget, he's spending 3.8T/year running us into oblivion......and YOU DON"T CARE. You want to criticize Ryan's budget?!?! Really??? Sounds like you're voting for us to become Greece/Portugal/Spain/Ireland/France.......good move C-M. I hope you have no kids, cuz you'd be voting AGAINST THEM by voting for Obama. Over and out. I actually enjoy seeing dolts like you who don't even know how to answer simple questions, because it proves to me what Obama-voters are like.... divorced from reality.
Mfl905 September 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM
cm4-you were wrong about one thing. Someone did bother to read this and Jay- An ad hominem (Latin for "to the man"), short for argumentum ad hominem, is an attempt to negate the truth of a claim by pointing out a negative characteristic or unrelated belief of the person supporting it. Ad hominem reasoning is normally described as a logical fallacy, more precisely an informal fallacy and an irrelevance.. So jay your arguments are irrelevant-and you don't read carefully -so don't bother to comment- I won't be interested in any of your angry diatribes..
JaySmith September 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM
Hey MFL905.......You are due back on planet earth. And I'm due at the office.

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